If estimates by Raila Odinga’s African Union Commission (AUC) campaign secretariat are to hold, then the former premier has a realistic chance of victory.
African heads converge in Addis Ababa on February 15 and 16 to elect a replacement for outgoing chairman, Moussa Faki Mahamat, who has served his maximum two terms.
With 49 AU states voting for the chairperson and a deputy, Raila needs 33 votes to win in the first round. Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea, Niger, Gabon and Sudan were suspended from AU activities and will not participate in the election.
The secretariat’s co-chair, Elkanah Odembo, told The Standard that the ODM party leader had secured the support of 28 nations. He did not specify the countries, saying the secretariat wanted to keep everything confidential as the race would be decided through a secret ballot.
Raila will face Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mahamoud Youssouf and former Madagascar Foreign Minister, Richard Randriamandrato. Eastern Africa will produce the chairperson, with the deputy seat reserved for Northern Africa.
The victor should secure two-thirds of the vote by heads of state and government, who constitute the AU’s Assembly. A failure to raise this majority could result in the suspension of the election.
If any of the three secure 33 votes in the first round, they will be declared the winner. If none does, voting will enter the second round, which will include the three candidates. During this stage, the winner should secure two-thirds of the vote.
“Provided that, if the third ballot remains inconclusive, the next ballot shall be restricted to the two (2) candidates who obtained the highest number of votes in the third ballot,” the AUC’s election guideline states.
In the fourth round, if both candidates fail to secure two-thirds of the vote, the candidate with fewer votes shall withdraw.
“If the remaining candidate, fails to obtain the two-thirds majority required in that round, the chairperson shall suspend the election,” says the guideline.
“The deputy chairperson of the commission shall take over the chairmanship of the commission on an interim basis until new elections are held. If the impasse is in respect of the deputy chairperson, the most senior commissioner by length of tenure, or by age where length of tenure is the same, shall be designated to act as the deputy chairperson until new elections are held.”
By the time the assembly sits to elect the commission’s chairperson and deputy, the Executive Council, comprising ministers of Foreign Affairs, will have elected other AUC commissioners (eight). The heads of state and government will appoint the elected commissioners after electing the chair and the deputy.
Odembo said Raila’s campaign team still had “work to do”, revealing a three-pronged strategy the secretariat has adopted as the race approaches its final stretch.
The first will see Raila and President William Ruto visit more heads of state, with Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi expected to step up his interactions with colleague Foreign Affairs ministers.
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“A number of us are now headed to Addis to support our ambassador and to engage the African ambassadors in Addis,” Odembo said yesterday.
Belgut Member of Parliament Nelson Koech urged Kenyans to rally behind Raila’s candidacy, which he said would benefit the Pan-Africanist cause.
