- Raila Odinga's trip to Africa to seek support for his intention to chair the African Union Commission may not bring positive results
- Former UNCTAD secretary general Mukhisa Kituyi, who noted that the outcome of the competition will be determined by many factors, some outside the continent
- According to Kituyi, Raila will win the race because the Francophone militant camp will support one of them, Djibouti's long-time Foreign Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf.
Nairobi – The former Secretary General of the United Nations on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Mukhisa Kituyi has poked holes in the campaign of Raila Odinga to lead the secretariat of the African Union (AU) from next year.
Source: UGC
Raila wants to succeed Moussa Faki as chairman of the African Union Commission, a post he will hold for four years if elected.
Being registered with the Kenyan government, the veteran opposition politician in Kenya has been going through Africa to ask for support from the heads of African countries.
Raila needs the support of either consensus or at least two-thirds of the votes by AU member states represented by their heads.
Why Raila will not win the AUC chairmanship, Mukhisa Kituyi
Evaluating the race, Kituyi saw that the camp of French speakers would create a barrier against the Kenyan candidate.
He said the Djibouti candidate, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, will sponsor French-speaking and Islamic countries to get the seat.
Kituyi went on to say that Raila's votes across the continent have no strategies and thus will not give him victory in the vote scheduled for February 2025.
There are other external factors that the campaign secretariat of the Kenyan candidate has not investigated, so there is an opening for the loss.
“I don't know if it's the campaign that gives you the seat. There are certain things that are very important to be considered strategically. The Israel-Gaza genocide is one of them. I have worked at the highest level in international diplomacy; we have sat in the forums where major electoral decisions and the selection is made. One thing I know for sure is that French-speaking Africa will always vote as a bloc on any issue concerning Africa.” he said.
According to Kituyi, a one-time presidential aspirant, French-speaking and Muslim countries will always help each other for the benefit of one of their citizens.
In this case, it is natural that the former camps may choose to support the request of Djibouti's long-time foreign minister, Mahmoud, Raila's arch-rival.
“You have two candidates for the position of representing Africa, if one is from Francophone and the other is not, the Francophone candidate starts with 29 votes. If you have candidates from Djibouti and Kenya, the Djibouti one starts with 29 votes, then add those. from Islamic countries, and SADC makes a statement that its countries support Djibouti, where will you start campaigning for Raila?” Kituyi posed.
The former Secretary General of UNCTAD seemed to share the thoughts of diplomatic analyst Ahmed Hashi, who previously highlighted the importance of regional isolation within the continent based on the borders and interests of the colonists.
According to Hashi, the AU has a strong influence from France, which has a large group classified as Francophone countries.
The continent's 28 French-speaking countries are the most in the AU and therefore more powerful than other blocs.
Hashi said those countries have a large stake in the AU secretariat.
Other groups in this continent are those who speak English, classified as Anglophone, and those who speak Portuguese, classified as Lusophone.
However, it has not been lost that some French-speaking countries were suspended from the AU and no longer participate in its activities, namely Niger, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Gabon and Mali.
Why some Francophone countries were temporarily suspended by the AU
According to Political Geography Now, the suspension of the AU is always a response to the overthrow of a government in a member state.
The continental organization has a policy that describes the release of countries whose governance changes through procedures that violate their constitutions, such as military coups.
These countries were suspended between 2021 and 2023 after political conflicts broke out due to chaos and the takeover of the government by the relevant military.
Guinea was suspended in September 2021, Sudan in October 2021, and Burkina Faso in January 2022, Mali including; in all cases, soldiers took over the running of those countries.
Niger and Gabon were suspended in quick succession in August 2023. The suspended countries are still considered members but do not participate in important meetings and votes.
Apart from Mahmoud, Raila will compete with the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Madagascar Richard Randriamandrato.
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