On today’s International Women’s Day, I celebrate Kenya’s ‘Iron Lady’ Martha Wangari Karua.
Unlike Kenya’s usual political gang members, the senior lawyer, former Gichugu MP and now People’s Liberation Party leader is by all means credible for high office. When she was Azimio chief Raila Odinga’s running mate in 2022, there were hopes that a woman of strength, brains and willpower would be deputy president. It didn’t happen.
As white as snow, Ms Karua is never been one to compromise on her beliefs. On June 16, 2001, she walked out on President Daniel Moi at a rally in Kerugoya. Years later when President Mwai Kibaki’s allies tormented her, she dropped her ministerial post like hot iron. Perhaps she is politician Angela Merkel’s student. The former German leader once said women must ride on their ambitions. Ms Karua does exactly that! The ‘Iron Lady’ has never required affirmative action or anyone’s endorsement to seek power.
The veteran politician’s only blot, critics say, was her hardline stand during the charged Serena talks, brokered by the late UN chief Kofi Annan after the disputed 2007 elections. Without evidence, Ms Karua insisted that a vanquished Kibaki had won.
When she launched her People’s Liberation Party on February 27, there were mixed emotions. Accompanied by Mr Rigathi Gachagua, Mr Kalonzo Musyoka and Mr Eugene Wamalwa at the launch, Ms Karua promised to fight, unite, and liberate us in 2027. That was quite powerful!
But the way I see it, Ms Karua deserves our pity. It is tough shifting the tide in a sea of political opportunists. As philosophers would say, there’s nothing frustrating like playing chess when everyone plays checkers. They drown you, and before you know it, your energy is depleted.
That said, as Ms Karua’ new team prepares to face off with President William Ruto, we must ask: Do her opposition ‘brothers’ possess virtues outlined by philosophies like Confucianism? In Confucian thought, leadership is tied to personal virtues. The perennially indecisive, and those who thing government is a share enterprise are selfish.
Yes, only those tested by moral challenges can lead. Sour grapes like what we see in Mr Gachagua and Mr Musyoka’s vitriol don’t make leaders great. As Kenya’s foremost woman politician, let’s wish Ms Karua well in 2027. But we must also revisit sobering lessons in our opposition history.
In 1992, Ford had the goodwill to oust Kanu. Initially, it united everyone against President Daniel Moi, but internal rifts fragmented it. The ‘unbowagable’ Ford fell with a thud as Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Martin Shikuku and Kenneth Matiba walked away with Ford-Asili, Ford-People and Ford-Kenya. Kanu triumphed in that year’s polls. Many will recall that at the heart of Ford’s downfall was Mr Shikuku’s visit to President Moi at State House, Nairobi, seven months before the elections. The visit caused distrust, with Ford members branding him a mole. Mr Shikuku went public, saying there was nothing wrong with visiting the seat of power to eat ‘Ugali’ with Mr Moi. The rest is history. Ahead of 2027, I foresee five major obstacles for Ms Karua and her new camp. One, hubris and overconfidence. Two, they have overestimated their influence at press conference and hotel meetings without considering the political realities ‘kwa ground’ across the restive nation.
Three, they mistakenly think the Ruto-Raila MoU signed yesterday will collapse before 2027. Four, the ‘Ugali’ factor. Like it or not, part of the opposition will bite melons, seek ‘shares’ and cross over like Mr Shikuku. They will desert Ms Karua. Also, the Gen-Z vote will elude them.
For the record, these opposition honchos were once Ruto allies. Differences in opinion and interests isn’t enmity. Again, it’s too early. I predict that Mr Gachagua, Ms Karua, Mr Musyoka and other possible contenders like Dr Fred Matiang’i, Mr Okiya Omtatah and Mr George Natembeya will burn out before 2027 unless they pace themselves. Ms Karua needs a tactical retreat. With Mr Odinga back, 2027 will be Ruto’s crowning moment.
The writer is a communications practitioner. X:@markoloo
