Why Uhuru and Raila will likely determine Ruto’s re-election bid

Former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga will most likely play the role of kingmakers during the 2027 General Election.

The two influential leaders, will with no doubt, have a major say on whether President William Ruto will get a second term in office or the country will get a sixth President.

Already, their respective parties are engaged in re-alignments – a clear indication that the duo will want to have a stake in that election.

The Jubilee Party associated with Uhuru has already unveiled its presidential candidate – the no-nonsense former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiangi in recognition of his performance in government between 2013 and 2022. 

It was expected that Raila would support Dr Ruto in 2027 if he won the African Union Commission Chairmanship but with his loss, his ODM party has gone back to the drawing board with the former Prime Minister expected to give direction when he jets back to the country from holiday.

Jubilee Party Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni last week said the decision to back Matiangi was arrived at following a consultation with the party’s representatives from across the country but was quick to clarify that the endorsement is purely a party decision ahead of further talks with Azimio coalition partners to come up with a final presidential candidate in 2027.

“This means that Matiangi is the presidential candidate of the Jubilee Party who is going to join others in the opposition parties as we seek to form a coalition with one formidable presidential candidate that will send President Ruto home during the 2027 General Election,” said Kioni.

Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga who is Raila’s elder brother has hinted that the ODM Party will be fielding a presidential candidate, maintaining that no party was formed to be in the opposition permanently and they desire to be in government.

According to Oburu, they have embarked on a journey to make the ODM Party formidable in readiness for the next elections and they will be engaging with like-minded parties to come up with a coalition.

“The ODM Party is preparing itself for the 2027 General Election where we expect to field a presidential candidate, we will be engaging with like-minded parties to come up with a coalition that will ensure that we form the next government,” said Oburu.

Already, ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna has dismissed assertions that Dr Ruto will clinch a second term in office if Raila supports him in 2027.  

Sifuna said that the ODM Party is waiting for Raila’s official communication on his next political move after he lost the AUC Chairmanship race.

“As the ODM Secretary General I have a global view of the country, I get calls from across the country that is why I am conflicted, I cannot, in good conscience support a regime that is killing our people, that has destroyed lives, economy, and livelihood of Kenyans,” said Sifuna. 

As the race ahead 2027 gathers pace, Wiper Democratic Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) Leader Eugene Wamalwa met with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua last week in what pundits believe is a strategy on how to approach General Election.

Kalonzo has asked Raila to ditch Ruto and join other opposition leaders as they come up with a formula to liberate the country from the Kenya Kwanza regime which he said has made life unbearing for Kenyans. 

“We are asking Raila Odinga to reclaim his legacy as a leader who has fought for the rights of ordinary Kenyans for several decades now. We are imploring him not to join the Kenya Kwanza regime which is currently very unpopular among citizens for misgoverning the country,” said Kalonzo.

Gachagua on his part argued that although Africa needed Raila the most, God, in his own wisdom, found that Kenya, and indeed Kenyans have unfinished business with him as their coveted son as they work towards unshackling the country from recklessness.

“In any case, the outcome at the African Union does not in any way undermine your leadership and your energy to fix our nation. The people of Kenya need you now more than before,” said Gachagua.

Political risk analyst Dismus Mokua is of the view that the Kenyan political space has now gotten to the known unknowns to unknowns known space. 

According to Mokua, at the moment, there is no single politician who has demonstrated the capacity to take head on President Ruto during the 2027 elections.

He says Jubilee’s endorsement of Matiang’i as a presidential candidate is a strategy aimed at making Kenyans start talking about his possible candidature ahead of 2027.

“Raila Odinga is accurately described as an enigma in Kenyan politics that has a blank cheque. The probability that he can endorse Ruto or Matiangi does exist, he will endorse any candidate who aligns with his selfish interests,” noted Mokua.