Blow to Raila as SADC urges 16 member states to back Madagascar’s candidate
In a last-minute directive that could complicate Raila Odinga’s bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairpersonship, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has urged its 16 member states to back Madagascar’s candidate, former Foreign Affairs Minister Richard Randriamandrato.
In a letter dated February 12, 2025, the SADC Secretariat confirmed that Madagascar had formally sought regional support for Randriamandrato’s candidacy ahead of the AUC elections scheduled for February 15-16.
The Secretariat, in consultation with the Chairperson of the Council, ruled out convening an Extraordinary Council of Ministers meeting, stating that time constraints made it impractical.
“A letter from the Secretariat seeking SADC Member States’ support for Madagascar’s candidature should suffice,” the directive stated.
“This letter, therefore, serves to encourage SADC Member States to support Richard J. Randriamandrato, a candidate from our region, for the position of AUC chairperson during the upcoming elections, in line with the August 2024 Council decision.”
The directive presents a significant challenge to Raila Odinga’s campaign, which has already secured backing from the East African Community (EAC).
Two SADC members, Tanzania, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), now find themselves at a crossroads, torn between their commitment to EAC’s endorsement of Raila and the new SADC directive.
Tanzania and DRC are both members of SADC and EAC.
Raila, the former AU High Representative for Infrastructure Development, had been seen as a frontrunner in the race, having secured endorsements from key African blocs, including the EAC and individual leaders in Southern Africa.
However, the SADC’s push for regional solidarity around Randriamandrato could split Raila’s support base and tilt the balance in the high-stakes election.
While Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi had previously expressed their support for Raila, it remains to be seen whether they will defy SADC’s directive.
Some analysts suggest that regional alignments and diplomatic maneuvering in the coming days could determine whether Raila maintains his advantage or faces a formidable challenge from Randriamandrato.
SADC, a regional bloc composed of Angola, Botswana, Comoros, DRC, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, wields significant influence within the AU.
Its endorsement of a single candidate is likely to weigh heavily on the election outcome.
As the election date nears, both Raila and Randriamandrato will be rallying for last-minute endorsements, with the final decision resting in the hands of AU member states.
The unexpected shift from SADC underscores the intricate political dynamics at play, highlighting the delicate balance between regional loyalties and broader continental aspirations in Africa’s top diplomatic post.
