Former UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi believes Raila Odinga faces an uphill battle in securing the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson position. Kituyi explained that historical voting patterns and regional bloc dynamics favor Odinga’s rivals, making his path to victory uncertain.
Voting Dynamics Favor Odinga’s Rivals
Kituyi highlighted that French-speaking nations, based on their voting history, tend to support candidates from within their linguistic bloc. He noted that this pattern has remained consistent due to the unity among Francophone nations when selecting AUC leaders.
“Normally, it is extremely difficult for the bloc to vote for a non-Francophone candidate if there is a French-speaking contender in the race,” Kituyi stated in an interview with NTV.
He pointed out that Djibouti’s Mohamoud Youssouf, a Francophone candidate, will likely receive the bloc’s support, posing a significant challenge to Odinga’s bid.
Ruto’s Israel Stance Could Impact Odinga’s Prospects
Kituyi also suggested that President William Ruto’s support for Israel during the Gaza conflict could negatively impact Odinga’s chances. He explained that Muslim-majority states, which constitute a significant portion of AU member nations, might vote against Odinga in response to Kenya’s diplomatic position.
“That means Ruto is not an asset. The main alternative to Raila is a Muslim who speaks French,” Kituyi remarked.
Additionally, Kituyi noted that Odinga cannot count on a united Anglophone bloc, as Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato has split support within that group, further complicating Odinga’s bid.
AUC Election Process
Odinga, Randriamandrato, and Youssouf are all vying to replace Chad’s Moussa Faki, who will step down in 2025 after completing his two-term tenure, which began in 2017.
The electoral process kicks off on February 12, 2025, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. During the two-day session from February 12-13, the AU Executive Council will elect and appoint commissioners. Following this, the Assembly of Heads of State and Government will elect the AUC Chairperson and Deputy Chairperson on February 15-16, 2025.
As per AU rules, voting will be conducted by secret ballot and will continue until one candidate secures a two-thirds majority. The elections will take place in three rounds and will be preceded by the selection of six commissioners.
A candidate will need the support of at least two-thirds of the Heads of State from the 55 AU member nations to secure victory.
President William Ruto’s past diplomatic tours show that 19 African heads of state have pledged support for Raila Odinga. The countries include Kenya, Togo, Gambia, Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Equatorial Guinea, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Malawi.
Other supporters include Tanzania, Uganda, Seychelles, Mauritius, Rwanda, Burundi, Algeria, South Sudan, and Eritrea.
