- President William Ruto's resignation from Mount Kenya sparked speculation about his strategy for the 2027 General Election
- Fighting between Mt Kenya leaders and the creation of splinter camps has reduced the traditional role of the region in Kenyan politics.
- Ruto is consolidating support in Nyanza, Western and North Eastern Kenya, using development projects and a Broad-Based Government to expand his voter base
- The divided opposition and Raila Odinga's direction in his application for the African Union Commission have left Ruto with a big advantage heading into 2027
Nairobi – Following the sacking of former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua and dissatisfaction within Mount Kenya, President William Ruto's withdrawal from the region has raised questions about his 2027 election strategy.
Source: Twitter
Once the main basket of votes that pushed him to win the 2022 General Election, Mount Kenya now seems to lose its importance in the plans of Ruto.
Political pundits have claimed that Ruto's reduced visits to this area are not an oversight or a resignation but a planned move.
As a human rights defender and political analyst Philip Wanyonyi Wekesa told TUKO.co.kethe local sense of entitlement undermined his position as a strong king in Kenyan politics.
Ruto seems to be using this narrative, allowing the region to isolate itself politically while strengthening his support in other key areas.
“So his reduced visit to this area is one of his strategies for Mt.Kenya to separate himself from other Kenyans, to paint the area as tribal and to seek justice for other Kenyans,” Wekesa commented.
How has the influence of Mount Kenya been lost?
From the era of Jomo Kenyatta to the recent era of his son, Uhuru Kenyattavotes to block the area have often tipped the scales. However, the 2022 polls revealed cracks in this administration.
Ruto's alliance with Mount Kenya leaders, including Gachagua, presented the presidency, but the relationship has deteriorated.
Disputes among the leaders of Mount Kenya and the inability to present a unified position have reduced the political weight of the region. Mount Kenya's fissures are predicted to further erode its strength by 2027.
The formation of three camps, one of Ruto, another leaning towards Gachagua, and the third leaning towards opposition politicians like Kalonzo Musyokahas torn apart the once-cohesive voting bloc.
“Mount Kenya's votes are out of date, and have been divided into 3 camps, thus greatly reducing his political influence in 2027. William Ruto understands Kenyan politics, especially Mount Kenya,” added Wekesa.
Instead, he is leaning on other areas where his support is growing and where the political rewards outweigh the efforts required to manage the internal discord in Mount Kenya.
How will Ruto's new alliances turn out?
With Mount Kenya's star on the wane, Ruto has turned to areas that were outside his political base.
Nyanza, West, North East, and parts of Eastern Kenya are emerging as its new strongholds.
These areas, fueled by Ruto's formation of a Basic Government (BBG), are expected to produce a majority in 2027.
“Ruto has new allies…Nyanza, the West, the North East, and the East, who will give him a second term. He has a better chance of winning the 2027 election than he did in 2022 when he faced strong opposition from. The former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and President Uhuru Kenyatta,” Wekesa explained.
The BBG, which includes leaders across the political spectrum, is a major innovation that has not only silenced opposition voices but also expanded Ruto's reach in previously hostile areas.
Western Kenya, for example, has seen an increase in development projects and political appointments under the Ruto administration, signaling his desire to court the local electorate.
Similarly, Nyanza, which is traditionally Raila Odinga's stronghold, has witnessed Ruto's charm, with promises of development and inclusion.
In the North East, his approach to security and infrastructure has been touched by the voters, while the East witnessed a deliberate dialogue with the local leaders.
These alliances give Ruto a broad national appeal, making him less dependent on Mount Kenya.
How the Kenyan opposition is helping Ruto
By creating a coalition that transcends ethnic lines, Ruto is positioning himself as a unifier, in stark contrast to the divided opposition.
The Umoja resolution, which brought together Raila and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, has lost its cohesion.
Raila's focus on his quest to become the chairman of the African Union Commission (AUC) has left the opposition in a leadership vacuum, while Kalonzo's 'strategy' has made him ineffective as a unifier.
Gachagua's confrontational style and focusing on Mount Kenya's grievances has alienated potential allies, thereby reducing his influence in the region.
“For someone to win the election depends on the opponents…. the current opposition is scattered and not organized. Ruto, by forming a broad government, has already prepared to face any opposition. The members of the opposition are not organized. Kalonzo Musyoka, while Gachagua is only bitter, and he cannot to lead the opposition to any successful political context,” Wekesa saw.
Even if Raila's AUC bid fails, his relationship with Ruto is no longer adversarial, and the two leaders have shown a willingness to work together, thus weakening the possibility of a 2027 opposition.
“To win against William Ruto, you need a lot of planning and strategizing, and you can put friends and enemies in the same camp. No one in Kenya has that ability except Raila Odinga, who is currently seeking AUC. Even if Raila loses the position .” The AUC chairman is Ruto's political partner,” he concluded.
What plan does Gachagua have for Mount Kenya?
Following the political changes, Gachagua assured the residents of Mount Kenya that he is listening to their concerns about the area and that he is ready to lead them forward.
He expressed his concern about the future of the region, warning that you may find yourself in what he described as the current pit.
Gachagua continued to criticize his political opponents, questioning how he has become the scapegoat for Kenya's problems.
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Source: TUKO.co.ke
