- Former prime minister Raila Odinga is preparing for the election of the chairman of the African Union Commission expected to take place in February 2025
- In an exclusive interview with TUKO.co.ke, political commentators Javas Bigambo and Macharia Munene expressed their belief that Raila has a great chance of winning
- However, they noted that the race will be challenging as Djibouti's Mahamoud Ali Youssouf is emerging as a formidable competitor.
With the election of the chairmanship of the African Union approaching, experts have begun to analyze the possibility of Raila Odinga get that chance.
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This is happening while Kenyans and the entire African continent are eagerly waiting for the Africa Debate debate, where Raila will compete with Mahamoud Ali Youssouf of Djibouti and Richard Jandriamandrato of Madagascar.
This high-stakes debate will shed light on each candidate's vision for the continent.
Can Raila Odinga win the AUC election?
In an exclusive interview with TUKO.co.ke, political analyst and lawyer Javas Bigambo expressed confidence that Raila will win the upcoming AUC elections.
Bigambo pointed out that this is due to the great efforts of the Kenyan government in campaigning for him across the continent.
“Raila has a greater chance due to the diplomatic efforts made by the government of Kenya First. Also, Raila has a good relationship with other leaders,” Bigambo said.
The professor also noted that Raila's vast political experience gives him a big edge in the race.
On the other hand, Historian and foreign policy expert Macharia Munene said that although Raila has a chance to win the race, it will not be an easy task.
Munene stressed that the Djibouti candidate has a big advantage in the race for the AUC chairmanship, noting his fluency in many languages, including French, Arabic, and Somali.
On the contrary, Raila speaks primarily English and Kiswahili, which can pose a challenge in a multi-lingual continent.
“Raila's opponent is very strong. He has the advantage of being understood, so he has to accompany an interpreter whenever he travels to countries that do not speak English or Kiswahili,” Munene said.
What factors will affect the victory of Raila AUC?
Analyst Bigambo said that Raila's chance of victory will depend heavily on the support of heads of state from various African nations that will participate in the election.
This means that Raila's relationship with the presidents of African countries will largely determine his fate in his quest for AUC.
He also noted that the religious positions of African leaders may have a big role in determining Raila's performance in the election, as heads of state may be inclined to vote for a candidate from their own religion.
“The Djibouti candidate is Muslim, this means that Muslim countries can be motivated to vote for him because they share the same religion as him,” Bigambo confirmed.
Referring to Bigambo's remarks, Professor Munene stressed that the attitude of the heads of African countries towards Raila and Kenya can greatly affect the results of the election of the AUC chairman.
For example, he pointed out that Kenya's controversial agreement with Adani, before its cancellation, had negatively affected the country's image. This was based on allegations from the US attorney's office, which accused Adani of paying bribes to obtain government contracts.
“You know Raila came out to defend Adani's plan which did not give him a good image as an AUC candidate. This could pose a big challenge for him,” Munene said.
Munene also said that Raila's performance in the much-awaited debate on Friday, December 13, will play an important role in determining his ability to lead Africa.
Munene pointed out that people are eager to see if Raila will appear for the debate, especially after his absence from the presidential debate leading up to the 2022 General Election.
Where to watch the debate between Raila and the opposition?
Separately, the AUC chairmanship candidates are currently in Ethiopia, ready for the Africa Debate tonight.
The African Union is collaborating with the Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation (EBC) to ensure that all public broadcasting organizations in the 55 AU member states have satellite link equipment to broadcast the debate in one of the six official languages of the Union.
In addition, arrangements have been made for commercial and private media within member states wishing to receive a clear feed to broadcast the debate live.
In Kenya, the national broadcasting organization KBC and Citizen TV are among the news stations that have confirmed to broadcast the event.
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Source: TUKO.co.ke
