- Diplomacy analyst Ahmed Hashi says it will not be easy for Raila Odinga to defeat the Djibouti candidate in the race for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC).
- Raila wants to be the prospective chairman of the AU secretariat in the vote expected to be held in February 2025 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- Hashi predicts Raila's defeat in the polls due to several factors, among them his age and regional changes in the continent
Diplomacy and governance analyst Ahmed Hashi does not see Raila Odinga's victory in the upcoming vote for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC).
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He says all the reasons for failure are clear against the candidate Kenya whose mission was officially launched on Tuesday, August 27.
If elected, Raila he will lead the secretariat of the African Union in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Why Raila will not win the African Union Commission (AUC) seat
Hashi predicts a landslide victory for Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, the Djibouti candidate.
He says in his analysis that Raila is included among the young African leaders who are currently despising them because they allegedly mismanaged the continent in their various positions.
According to him, the lack of stability among the youth of this continent can provide the final vote in the AU General Assembly; he pointed out that the heads of African countries would try to appease the youth by voting for a seemingly neutral leader who does not agree with the status quo – like Raila is with the Kenyan government, which faced a rebellion a few months back – to shut down politics. conflicts and revolutions arising from the anger of the youth.
“I think he will lose in Addis Ababa, I would be surprised if he gets even a small vote. The candidate from Djibouti will win by a landslide. There is a rebellion of young people like us in Kenya, all over. from Senegal, to the Sahel, and to Sudan. There is a national democratic revolution, and one of the biggest issues which the youth are fighting for is because of the bad governance and the terrible economy in the continent about change and change,” he said.
The analyst, who appeared in a Citizen TV interview, also highlighted the importance of regional separation within the continent based on the borders and interests of the colonists.
According to Hashi, the AU has a strong influence from France, which has a large block known as the Francophone countries.
The 28 French-speaking countries on the continent make up the majority of the AU and are therefore more powerful than other blocs.
However, it has not been lost that some French-speaking countries were suspended from the AU and no longer participate in its activities, namely Niger, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Gabon and Mali.
How French-speaking countries undermined the candidacy of Kenyans
He said those countries have a big contribution to the AU secretariat and therefore, they would prefer a candidate who shares their ideologies, and Raila, who identified eight important areas for his campaign, does not fit the bill.
And with the fact that the next chairman is from the East African region, Mahamoud is the most suitable relationship his ability to communicate in French like his fellow Djibouti, according to Hashi.
The analyst gave an example from Kenya's loss when it appointed the former Minister of Foreign Affairs Amina Mohamed in 2017.
According to Hashi, the French government sent its citizens to Africa to kill the Kenyan candidate.
“In Africa Westwe have Francophones, those influenced by the French, we have Lusophones in some places, and then those who speak English. OR is divided based on these basic tectonic plates. And one of the biggest influencers of the AU is the French. For example, we knew Amina Mohamed would win, and then the French government intervened and we failed. I think a similar situation will happen in Central Africa, they will stand up for Raila and say No!” said Hashi.
The age issue would also be Raila's undoing, according to Hashi.
He questioned the ability of the former prime minister of Kenya to largely carry out the duties of the AUC chairman if he is favored by African heads of state.
Hashi seemed to doubt Raila's ability to recognize and relate to the young African talents and their demands.
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“This is a bad move for Raila. In a continent where 80 percent of the people are under 25 years, whether or not it serves the interests of the continent for us to have someone retiring in his 80s, whether he has energy, strength and the warmth of understanding and making important issues about youth bubbles in the continent,” he said.
Inside the AU secretariat
The AUC is made up of a chairman, deputy chairman and commissioners, as well as staff.
The parliament, which includes the heads of state and government, elects their president and vice president.
The Executive Council elects commissioners appointed by Parliament.
The terms of the members of the Commission are for four years, they can be renewed once.
Raila, who served as the African Union High Representative for Infrastructure Development for five years between 2018 and 2023, will need the support of either consensus or at least two-thirds of the votes by member states represented by their heads.
If he wins, Raila will abide by the code of ethics of the chairmanship, which states that the holder of the office should take a back seat in the politics of their country and, at the same time, remain neutral in African social and political positions.
In addition to Mahmoud, Raila will compete with the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Madagascar, Richard Randriamandrato and Anil Gayan of Mauritius.
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