- Raila Odinga officially launched his bid for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC), marking the last chapter in his political life
- At 79, Raila's age raises concerns about his ability to meet the demands of the role, especially against younger contenders such as Djibouti's Mahmoud Ali Youssouf
- Raila's candidacy has sparked mixed reactions among Kenyans, with some seeing it as a proud moment, while others have criticized his recent political stances
- The success of Raila's campaign will depend on his ability to navigate African geopolitics, manage past political conflicts, and coordinate with the Kenyan government.
Nairobi – The leader of the Unity One Kenya Union, Raila Amolo Odinga has officially launched his bid for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC).
Source: Getty Images
The lavish ceremony at the Nairobi palace marks what many think could be the final chapter in his illustrious political career.
Raila's quest to become AUC chairman is not just a personal ambition but represents a test of diplomatic power Kenya in the continent.
Chief Minister Musalia Mudavadi, who also serves as Minister of Foreign Affairs and Diaspora, confirmed that Kenya had submitted the necessary documents for Raila's nomination, signaling strong support for the nation.
Despite his extensive political experience and Pan-African credentials, securing this high-profile position has been fraught with challenges.
1. Raila's old age
Raila is no stranger to the political scene, but at 79 years old, concerns about his age could be a major obstacle.
Some may question whether Raila's age may limit his effectiveness in the demanding role of AUC chairman, which requires high levels of energy, constant travel, and the ability to manage complex negotiations.
Although his extensive experience and historical knowledge of African politics is invaluable, some may fear that his physical abilities may not match the required requirements.
The chairman of the commission is the chief executive officer, the legal representative of the AU and the chief accounting officer of the chairman of the AU.
Djibouti put forward its Foreign Minister, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, as a candidate for the next AUC chairmanship.
At the age of 58, Youssouf can appeal to some leaders in this continent due to his 'young' presence compared to Raila.
However, Raila's age may also work in his favour, given the political power he has accumulated over the years, enabling him to better engage Africa's top leadership.
2. Opinions of Kenyans about Raila's candidacy
Raila's candidacy announcement has sparked mixed reactions from Kenyans, with some seeing it as a moment of national pride and a way to strengthen Kenya's influence on the continent.
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Another section has claimed that Raila's political conflicts in the past, including his contested presidential bid and involvement in opposition politics, could pose a serious challenge.
Initially, Raila's bid had strong support from Kenyan youth, especially Gen Zs, who saw it as an important moment for his prestigious career.
However, his decision to enter the wider government and the administration of President William Ruto has not found his fans.
Social networks are full of online votes won by Youssouf as the youth accuse the veteran politician of betraying their cause.
Kenya's internal divisions could undermine the unity support he needs to make a strong case for the rest of Africa.
3. Kenya's perspective on African geopolitics
Raila's candidacy comes at a time when the African continent is facing several geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Sahel region, ongoing instability in the Horn of Africa, and the crisis in the Great Lakes region, among others.
Kenya's position on these issues, especially in terms of neutrality and peacekeeping, can strengthen or hinder its position.
If Kenya is perceived as biased or aligned too closely with certain factions, it could reduce Raila's appeal as a unifier of the continent.
The country's previous declarations on various issues may play a big role in its bid to take over the leadership of the AUC.
The hot potato for him to deal with is the issue of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), known as Western Sahara.
Raila will have to deal with other geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The growing tension between Ethiopia and Somalia will also require a degree of strategic ambiguity if not neutrality.
4. Structure of Raila's campaign team
The group that Raila will choose to lead his campaign will contribute greatly to determining his success.
It will have to negotiate the difficult political situation of the African Union, win over key member states and dispel the concerns of potential opponents.
Building the necessary coalitions and fighting the opposition will depend heavily on the level of strategists, diplomats and advisers on his team.
Given the stakes, mistakes by his campaign staff could quickly destroy his chances.
5. Past issues related to political conflict
Raila's long history in the continent has seen him make friends and enemies in equal measure, and when he starts campaigning, they pose a threat to his candidacy.
Due to his long history in African politics, he has made several friends and enemies over the years.
Unresolved issues or past disputes with other African leaders could resurface during his campaign, creating friction that opponents could take advantage of.
Furthermore, there may be concerns about Raila's impartiality in the continent due to his position in Kenyan politics and relationship frequent wives of previous African presidents.
6. Coordination between government bureaucrats and Raila's team
It will take more than diplomatic steps to get the AUC chair, as Raila's campaign team and the Kenyan government must coordinate resources and logistics.
Since regular official support is essential for successful international publication campaigns, this partnership is essential.
But a possible power struggle between government bureaucrats and the former prime minister's team could lead to misunderstandings or even sabotage, especially if there are conflicting interests.
Who is leading Raila's campaigns for AUC?
In June this year, Mudavadi revealed that the government had established a secretariat to lead Raila's quest.
As Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mudavadi confirmed the commitment of the government to ensure that Raila succeeds in getting that prestigious position.
Mudavadi said the team has approved the preparation and application documents as well as the necessary translations of his biography in six languages; Spanish, Portuguese, Arabic, French, English and Kiswahili.
He expressed confidence in Raila's ability to maintain excellence, in line with the shared vision of the African continent in 2063, as outlined in the AUC development framework.
What else you need to know about the Raila AU bid
- ODM leader Raila Odinga gave a list of African presidents who had openly supported his aspirations for the continent.
- The veteran Kenyan politician officially presented his credentials before voting in February next year.
- The position of AUC chairman will become vacant in 2025 following the end of Moussa Faki's second and final term.
- The US Ambassador to Kenya, Meg Whitman, endorsed the leader of the United Declaration for the AUC seat.
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Source: TUKO.co.ke
